Calculate the true expected value of any casino bonus. See if the wagering requirement makes it mathematically worth claiming.
EV = Bonus - (Wager × (1 - RTP))Every casino bonus has hidden math. Here's what determines if it's worth your money.
Expected Value is the average amount you can expect to win or lose on a bonus if you play it many times. A positive EV (+$20) means the bonus is mathematically profitable over time. A negative EV (-$60) means the casino has the edge.
Wagering requirements multiply the bonus amount by a factor (e.g. 40×). The higher the wagering, the more you expose to the house edge. A small wagering requirement can turn a losing bonus into a profitable one.
Slots typically have 94-96% RTP. Blackjack with basic strategy can be 99%+. The higher the RTP, the less the house edge, and the more valuable the bonus becomes.
A bonus is +EV when: Wagering < 1 / (1 - RTP)
For slots (96%): wagering must be under 25× to be profitable.
For blackjack (99%): wagering can be up to 100× and still be +EV.
| Game | Typical RTP | Max Wagering for +EV |
|---|---|---|
| Blackjack (basic strategy) | 99.0% - 99.5% | Up to 100x - 200x |
| Video Poker (full pay) | 99.5% | Up to 200x |
| European Roulette | 97.3% | ~35x |
| Baccarat (Banker bet) | 98.9% | ~90x |
| High RTP Slots | 97.0% - 98.0% | ~33x - 50x |
| Average Slots | 94.0% - 96.0% | ~16x - 25x |
| Low RTP Slots | 90.0% - 94.0% | ~10x or less |
EV calculation is the fastest way to separate good crypto casino bonuses from traps. Here is how to use it when comparing offers.
A 200% bonus with 50× wagering is usually worse than a 100% bonus with 20× wagering. Run both through the calculator and compare the final EV number.
If the bonus allows blackjack or video poker, use those. A 99% RTP game turns many bonuses positive, while 94% slots often make them negative.
Many casinos count blackjack wagers at only 10% toward wagering. That effectively multiplies the wagering by 10. Always read the bonus terms before calculating.
A 500% match up to $50 and a 100% match up to $1,000 produce very different EVs. Enter the actual bonus amount you will receive, not just the percentage.
| RTP | House Edge | Break-Even Wagering | Safe Wagering for +EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99.5% | 0.5% | 200× | Up to ~150× |
| 98.9% | 1.1% | ~91× | Up to ~70× |
| 97.3% | 2.7% | ~37× | Up to ~25× |
| 96.0% | 4.0% | 25× | Up to ~18× |
| 94.0% | 6.0% | ~16.7× | Up to ~12× |
| 92.0% | 8.0% | 12.5× | Up to ~9× |
Break-even wagering = 1 / house edge. Anything below this gives positive expected value.
Different crypto casinos have very different bonus terms. Read our Bitstarz review for frequent reloads, Bets.io review for high-RTP game availability, and Cryptocasino review for flexible bonus terms. You can also test strategies with no risk in our free crypto casino games.
After checking bonus value, plan your deposit cost with our Crypto–Fiat Calculator, or compare sportsbook lines across formats with our Odds Converter.